30 years historical data perspective: A shares in February easy “red”?

2022-06-25 0 By

On Jan. 28, A-shares wrapped up January 2022 in A “и” (Cyrillic) pattern.Despite a rough start to the year, February has a 70 per cent chance of rising on a 30-year basis, with an average monthly gain of 2.92 per cent, the third-highest of any 12-month period.Insiders said that in the recent market risk gradually released, in February will usher in the performance report before the centralized disclosure of the safety window period, superimposed on the consideration of credit time, in February A shares are expected to usher in A rebound.Some brokers even think that February will be the best phase of the first half of the market.In January 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 10.29%, and the GEM index fell 12.45%.However, based on historical data, February Shanghai index is mostly “red”.According to the statistics of the Shanghai Composite Index from 1992 to 2021, February is the month with the highest probability of rising among the 12 months.The Shanghai index has risen in February in 21 of the 30 years in which the data are compiled, a 70% probability.In addition, February’s average gain of 2.92 percent was the third highest among 12 months, behind May (6.63 percent) and April (4.37 percent).Zhejiang securities strategy analyst Wang Yang re盘 data also corroborated this point.Its statistics show that since 2000, wind all A’s probability of rising in February is close to 80%.Or the best phase of the first half of the year 2022 A share market started unexpectedly, the three major indexes are in adjustment.After the Spring Festival, A shares will start trading in February. Will the market rebound then?In addition to the above recovery data that the probability of February rise is high, Wang Yang said that the early group of varieties of risk has been released, some short-term plate even oversold.It is expected that the market in February or usher in a stage rebound, and small – cap stocks are expected to dominate.From the point of view of the time window, xinda Securities strategy analyst Fan Jituo said, from the annual report disclosure progress, time mostly concentrated in March to April, February time window is still safe.’While a lot of investors have been talking about spring and New Year’s rallies since the end of last year, historically, the time for real certainty tends to be February,’ Mr. Fan said.Therefore, A shares may have A technical rebound in February, this month may be the best phase of the first half of the year.From the historical law, Galaxy securities analyst Li Zhuorui said, the spring market before the opening of the market will generally experience a period of decline, early market decline extent to a certain extent determines the spring market rebound strength.In addition, optimistic policy is a sufficient condition for the start of the spring market. The central bank’s release of liquidity and the recovery of credit data in the past years are the upward driving force of the spring market, and the current steady growth policy is gradually exerting its power.At present, peripheral market risks have been released, A share valuation has also fallen to A low position.In the afternoon, to stabilize investor sentiment, part of the track stocks after the gradual release of risk, steady growth driven by the spring market or gradually open.In terms of industry allocation, Galaxy Securities suggests paying attention to two main lines: one is an important conference benefiting themes, such as digital economy, new energy, etc.;Second, the steady growth policy benefiting sectors, such as building materials, machinery, etc.Wanlian Securities recommended attention to the consumer, infrastructure sector and low valuation of the financial sector.Source: China Securities Journal New Media Editor: Xu Zheng China.org.cn financial official wechat (ID: ZGWCJZX)